Dollar exchange rate forecast for March. Spring thaw

22.01.2018 If the gradual deterioration of relations between Russia and Western countries continues, we predict the euro exchange rate in March 2019 to 85 rubles per 1 euro.

The uncertainty of the UK's exit from the EU may have a negative impact on the euro exchange rate. Some analysts predict a sharp fall in this currency in this case. However, this will also hit the ruble in the longer term. The only question is how long is “long-term” in the current situation.

The unstable Russian economy with its high inflation will continue to play against the ruble.

Most experts agree that American currency exchange rate in March 2019 will not exceed 67-68 rubles.

An increase in oil production in the United States, on the one hand, and a decrease in Russian energy exports, on the other, will play against the ruble.

The ruble/dollar exchange rate will be strongly influenced by American economic sanctions against the Russian Federation and their anticipation, especially sanctions in the banking sector.

The continuation of trade wars started by the United States may also have a negative impact on the ruble exchange rate. And the agreement with China may result in the neighbor choosing American oil over ours.

The next increase in the US Federal Reserve rate, which always hits all emerging markets, could be especially dangerous for the ruble.

Where to invest in March?

The storm in the banking system will continue, troubles for small banks will lead to, in any case, take care of the safety of yours.

• Additionally: .
• General annual forecasts: , . Important:
• — discussion.

In March: buy a summer cottage plot, which by August can grow by 10-20 percent - a very interesting idea, the main thing is not to make a mistake, because by winter prices will drop a little again.

2018

20.02.2018 led to the return to Russia of up to 12 billion dollars (according to bank calculations). This strengthens the ruble and should allow it to remain at 56 rubles in March.

22.01.2018 Low inflation and stable oil prices provide excellent support for the ruble. If the situation is not spoiled by sanctions, then 55-56 rubles per dollar.

4.01.2018 After the February shocks (which may not happen), pessimists expect the dollar exchange rate to be around 63 rubles, optimists - 58. Possible February sanctions are too important and significant a factor. At the same time, the Central Bank has shown that even with the volatility of the ruble, the economy is able to hold up, although on the eve of the elections there will be many who want to shake it.

2017

11.01.2017 Due to President Trump taking office at the beginning of 2017, investors will continue to flee risky assets to the United States, which will cause further strengthening of the dollar. The euro does not feel so confident in the market; the Eurozone economy is not in the best condition. By March, the results of implementing the OPEC agreement will become visible, and the ruble will continue to strengthen. Since the inflation targets in 2017 seem achievable, the Central Bank can solve the problem of replenishing the budget and therefore will not allow the ruble to grow much by entering the foreign exchange market, simultaneously replenishing gold and foreign currency reserves. Forecast: dollar - 60.2 rubles, euro - 62.4 rubles.

10.01.2017 Donald Trump's policy by March will still be uncertain, which will affect the growth of the American currency. Moreover, Trump promised to make changes at the Fed. For the euro, March could be a test of strength, as the April elections in France will be a factor of instability due to the growing popularity of far-right candidates. Against the backdrop of economic recovery, the ruble looks much more promising, so the forecasts for the ruble are positive: 59 rubles/dollar and 60 rubles/euro.

2016

30.01.2016 The main things that will have the greatest impact on exchange rates in March 2016. The first is oil. Without dramatic surprises in geopolitics, the price of oil will depend on Russia's negotiations with OPEC. Only news about the possibility of these negotiations “raised” prices and strengthened the ruble. At these negotiations, they will discuss a reduction in production by large companies by 5%. Previously, such meetings were always productive, but this time there is no such confidence. The second is the key rate of the Central Bank. After January 29, it remained unchanged and is 11%. Third - bet. Forecast: dollar in the range of 65-77 rubles, euro - 73-76 rubles.

29.01.2016 80 rubles per dollar, 85 per euro, if oil prices do not collapse, but remain at the level of $33-35. And up to 60 rubles per dollar at prices of $50-60 per barrel.

25.01.2016 The prerequisites are emerging for the strengthening of the ruble; if oil quotas are settled, the ruble may strengthen at around 65 rubles per dollar.

23.01.2016 The stabilization of oil prices above $30 per barrel is most likely a temporary phenomenon. and Iran in their confrontation are, apparently, ready to work in the red for some time, knocking each other out of the markets, but first Venezuela, Nigeria and Russia suffer. The dollar forecast for March is 85 rubles.

14.01.2016 It is obvious that the lifting of sanctions from Iran and dumping by the Saudis will reduce the cost of oil, and, therefore, the ruble. I would venture to give the most skeptical forecast for today - 90 rubles per dollar. On the other hand, this will hit shale producers hard and in the future will give oil producers the opportunity to extend the oil era, delaying the dominance of alternatives.

02.01.2016 There is an abundance of oil on the market, winter is coming to an end: the situation is unfavorable for the ruble. An exchange rate of 80 rubles per dollar could become a reality.

2015

27.02.2015 The euro continues to weaken, so in March drawdowns of up to 67 rubles are possible; for the dollar, the situation will most likely be about 60 rubles in the first half of the month; in the second, depending on the situation with Ukraine and sanctions, the position may change.

15.02.2015 Oil is rising, there is some geopolitical detente. We forecast the dollar at 61 rubles, the euro 70. If there are no new negative challenges, the ruble and oil will continue their upward trend.

28.01.2015 Mikhailov Dmitry Sergeevich: In March, Russian banks and corporations will have to make the largest payments on loans taken abroad. Since the external market for raising funds is closed and they will not be able to refinance for foreign currency there, therefore they will buy foreign currency on the domestic market. And here a lot depends on the Central Bank: will they allow the same failure as at the end of last year or will they give the market the required amount of currency and not allow the ruble to fall further. Since it is impossible to somehow guess what the Central Bank will do, it is also impossible to make forecasts for March. But, offhand, it’s 100 rubles per dollar if the Central Bank sleeps through the market and 65 if oil rises and the Central Bank starts doing its job.

02.01.2015 Many enterprises and entrepreneurs will be in a hurry to close, payments, as usual, will create a shortage of rubles, which will play in the other direction, however, it is doubtful that it will be possible to seriously win back the lost positions; one can only hope that Russian exporters will really benefit from this.

The dollar exchange rate set by the Bank of Russia today is 76.39 rubles, the euro exchange rate on February 26, 2016 is 84.21 rubles.

The dollar exchange rate at Sberbank on February 26, 2016 was set at 73.45 rubles. upon purchase and 79.55 rubles. when selling by a bank, the euro exchange rate today is 81.05 rubles. and 87.55 rub. when buying and selling by Sberbank, respectively.

Forecast of the dollar and euro exchange rate for March 2016 in Russia from an analyst

According to Forex Club Group analyst Irina Rogova, the ruble and oil now remain inseparable, and in the near future the situation is unlikely to change radically.

On March 1, 2016, negotiations between oil exporting countries are expected to be completed regarding the issue of freezing crude oil production at January levels, however, as the expert notes, “the current situation gives reason to believe that significant breakthroughs in this matter will not occur (Iran plans to continue to increase production, Saudi Arabia speaks of his unwillingness to reduce it).”

“Moreover, a freeze can have an impact on supply only in the next 2-3 years. Therefore, there is a high probability that oil will remain within the previously established range. Consequently, the ruble can maintain its previous range of fluctuations,” Rossiyskaya Gazeta quotes Rogova as saying.

Thus, according to the analyst, it is still difficult to talk about the USD/RUB pair breaking through the lower boundary of the established range.

“The key event in March for the ruble will be the meeting of the Bank of Russia on monetary policy. Most likely, the regulator will keep the key rate level unchanged for now. Of course, at the end of January, inflation in annual terms dropped to 9.8 percent, but this was largely due to the high base effect. In general, it is too early to say that the threat of rising price pressure is low. Moreover, an increase in the excise tax on gasoline is expected in April, which will certainly be reflected in prices,” Rogova believes.

In her opinion, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will most likely take a wait-and-see approach, and the ruble will react rather restrainedly to this inaction.

“But without rising oil prices, we can hardly expect a significant strengthening of the ruble. Most likely, USD/RUB will not fall below the 73.00 level, and EUR/RUB will receive support around the 80.60 level. Although, both the dollar and the euro have their own risk factors in the form of meetings of national central banks,” Rogova said.

“On March 15-16, there will be a meeting of the US Federal Reserve, from which they are not expected to raise rates and this may be positive for all emerging markets. And on March 10, the ECB may announce additional measures to stimulate the economy, which will be able to put pressure on the European currency. Therefore, if the euro/ruble pair breaks through the level of 80.60, one can expect a movement to 78.40,” she added.

The most pessimistic forecasts became reality; in January, the value of the dollar already exceeded the 82 ruble mark. At the same time, the euro exchange rate is about 90 rubles/euro. The historical low of the Russian currency is associated with a record collapse in oil prices. In the near future, the devaluation of the ruble may continue, experts say.

OIL ANCHOR

The current position of the ruble is fully consistent with fundamental factors, says the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina. The Russian currency reacts to the fall in oil prices, which have approached $28 per barrel. The collapse of “black gold” is associated with the resumption of Iranian oil supplies, when supply already significantly exceeded consumption levels. Sberbank CIB experts believe that the ruble’s problems are related to the position of large exporters. At the end of last year, companies retained about 60% of foreign currency earnings, compared to 46% in 2014. These trends lead to a gradual weakening of the Russian currency, which will be observed during the first quarter. In addition to negative factors, the dollar exchange rate forecast for March 2016 will depend on positive trends. Gazprombank analysts are confident that the foreign exchange market will stabilize in the near future. Oil will cease to have a dominant influence on the dynamics of the ruble, giving way to a strong balance of payments. It is the positive balance of foreign trade (about $55 billion in 2016, with an average cost of $38 per barrel) that will help the ruble stop its decline. Another positive factor for the Russian currency is the reduction in debt burden. According to Central Bank experts, Russian companies will have to repay $30 billion this year, compared to $65 billion a year earlier. The further dynamics of the dollar and euro in Russia is controversial among experts, which is confirmed by various exchange rate forecasts for March 2016.

FROM RECOVERY TO CRASH

Representatives of Gazprombank believe that in the current situation the ruble has prospects for strengthening. According to their estimates, the Russian currency will gradually restore its position to 72 rubles/dollar. The dollar is in the range of 82-84 rubles. Danske Bank analysts expect. Another negative factor for the Russian economy remains the slowdown in China's GDP growth. Without positive news from the Middle Kingdom, it will be difficult for the ruble to restore its value. APECON analysts expect the dollar to cost 80-82 rubles at the end of the first quarter. At the same time, the forecast for the euro exchange rate for March 2016 is approaching 85-87 rubles/euro. The dynamics of the European currency will lag behind the dollar, which is due to the Fed's policy. The American economy is signaling the beginning of a recovery phase, which allows the regulator to gradually increase the rate. In turn, the eurozone countries have not yet overcome the consequences of the economic slowdown. As a result, the value of the euro will gradually decline. The European Union will also have to resolve issues with the influx of refugees and Greece’s debts. At the same time, uncertainty remains regarding the UK's future participation in the EU. The current weakening of the ruble could lead not only to accelerated inflation, but also to new problems in the banking sector, experts warn. Soon, financial organizations will not be able to meet established standards. This will lead to a collapse in lending, which will hinder economic recovery. The situation can be improved by active actions on the part of the Central Bank, which can soften its requirements for compliance with standards. President Vladimir Putin believes that a weak ruble will create additional opportunities for business representatives. Russian companies will be able to strengthen their positions in the domestic market, which will bring positive results in the future. Following the dynamics of oil prices, the ruble updated its anti-record against the dollar and euro. In addition, the Russian currency is under pressure from the slowdown of the Chinese economy and the retention of foreign exchange earnings by large exporters. A strong trade balance and a reduction in the debt burden will contribute to the strengthening of the ruble. The most likely range for the value of the dollar is 80-84 rubles. In turn, the euro exchange rate will be fixed within 85-90 rubles.

The most pessimistic forecasts became reality; in January, the value of the dollar already exceeded the 82 ruble mark. At the same time, the euro exchange rate is about 90 rubles/euro.

The historical low of the Russian currency is associated with a record collapse in oil prices. In the near future, the devaluation of the ruble may continue, experts say.

Oil anchor

The current position of the ruble is fully consistent with fundamental factors, says the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina. The Russian currency reacts to the fall in oil prices, which have approached $28 per barrel. The collapse of “black gold” is associated with the resumption of Iranian oil supplies, when supply already significantly exceeded consumption levels.

Experts Sberbank CIB They believe that the problems of the ruble are related to the position of large exporters. At the end of last year, companies retained about 60% of foreign currency earnings, compared to 46% in 2014. These trends lead to a gradual weakening of the Russian currency, which will be observed during the first quarter. In addition to negative factors, the dollar exchange rate forecast for March 2016 will depend on positive trends.

Analysts Gazprombank We are confident that the foreign exchange market will stabilize in the near future. Oil will cease to have a dominant influence on the dynamics of the ruble, giving way to a strong balance of payments. It is the positive balance of foreign trade (about $55 billion in 2016, with an average cost of $38 per barrel) that will help the ruble stop its decline.

Another positive factor for the Russian currency is the reduction in debt burden. According to Central Bank experts, Russian companies will have to repay $30 billion this year, compared to $65 billion a year earlier.

The further dynamics of the dollar and euro in Russia is controversial among experts, which is confirmed by various exchange rate forecasts for March 2016.

From recovery to collapse

Representatives of Gazprombank believe that in the current situation the ruble has prospects for strengthening. According to their estimates, the Russian currency will gradually restore its position to 72 rubles/dollar.

The dollar is in the range of 82-84 rubles. analysts expect Danske Bank. Another negative factor for the Russian economy remains the slowdown in China's GDP growth. Without positive news from the Middle Kingdom, it will be difficult for the ruble to restore its value. Analysts APECON at the end of the first quarter they expect the dollar to cost 80-82 rubles. At the same time, the forecast for the euro exchange rate for March 2016 is approaching 85-87 rubles/euro.

The dynamics of the European currency will lag behind the dollar, which is due to the Fed's policy. The American economy is signaling the beginning of a recovery phase, which allows the regulator to gradually increase the rate. In turn, the eurozone countries have not yet overcome the consequences of the economic slowdown. As a result, the value of the euro will gradually decline. The European Union will also have to resolve issues with the influx of refugees and Greece’s debts. At the same time, uncertainty remains regarding the UK's future participation in the EU.

The current weakening of the ruble could lead not only to accelerated inflation, but also to new problems in the banking sector, experts warn. Soon, financial organizations will not be able to meet established standards. This will lead to a collapse in lending, which will hinder economic recovery. The situation can be improved by active actions on the part of the Central Bank, which can soften its requirements for compliance with standards.

The president Vladimir Putin believes that a weak ruble will create additional opportunities for business representatives. Russian companies will be able to strengthen their positions in the domestic market, which will bring positive results in the future.

The unstable situation in the foreign exchange market continues to worry Russians. The exchange rate between the dollar and the euro at the close of trading on January 24 showed: the dollar stopped at 76.39 rubles, having fallen in price by 0.73 rubles, the euro immediately fell by 1.77 rubles, stopping at 84.07 per euro.

With the end of the last winter month, economists and analysts have updated their dollar exchange rate forecasts for March 2016. The editors looked into how warm the spring will be on the foreign exchange market.

Farewell chord of February

Before moving on to updated forecasts for the dollar exchange rate for March, let's find out at what level the American currency will end the last month of winter? At the beginning of the last week of February, the foreign exchange market was faced with unpleasant news from the oil market. After Iran's oil industry Bijan Zanganeh, oil prices went down.

Let us recall that Russia and Saudi Arabia have addressed all major oil producers with a proposal to freeze the production of raw materials at current levels. This proposal was laughed at in Iran.

“Some of our neighbors have increased production to 10 million barrels per day and now have the audacity to advise everyone to stop increasing production. That is, they will keep production at 10 million barrels per day, and we must keep it at 1 million. This is just ridiculous,” Bijan Zangan said, forgetting about political correctness.

After the words of the Iranian minister, the price of oil fell from 35 to 33 dollars per barrel. The ruble also showed a negative trend, but already on February 24, the Russian currency regained several positions.

According to the forecasts of Alpari senior analyst Vadim Iosubu, until the end of February the dollar will fluctuate in the range of 75-78 rubles, the euro – 82-85 rubles. The expert explains that several important macroeconomic publications will occur at the end of February. Thus, on February 25, data on the consumer price index in the Eurozone for January will be published, as well as data on orders for durable goods in the United States. Also on February 26, the United States will release preliminary data on GDP for the fourth quarter of 2015 and the balance of foreign trade in goods for January. These publications can influence the monetary policy of the United States and Europe, which, in turn, will have an impact on the currency market.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for March

The first month of spring may also be warm on the foreign exchange market, experts predict. The author of the most accurate forecasts for the ruble exchange rate, Nomura analyst Dmitry Petrov, expects the Russian currency to strengthen against the backdrop of a slowdown in the decline in oil prices and from Russian banks. Note that Dmitry Petrov and his team occupy 1st place in the ranking of 34 Bloomberg forecasters. According to the analyst, the Russian currency will strengthen in 2016 and reach 65 rubles per dollar by the end of the year.

The dollar exchange rate forecast for March from Petrov also predetermines the weakening of the American currency. In the first month of spring, the dollar may drop to 67 rubles.

The optimism of the leading Russian analyst is not shared by Barclays, which is confident that in March 2016 the dollar exchange rate will reach 76 rubles, and by the end of the year - up to 78 rubles.

Boris Kheifets, chief researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, is also inclined to believe that in the spring, inflated currency prices will disappear along with the snow. The expert is convinced that March-April will be characterized by a fall in the American currency. In the spring, the dollar may cost below 70 rubles, but in the summer it will begin to regain its positions again.